Transaction
The activity in the transaction market has been low for over a year now, with the total volume in 2023 down almost 40 percent compared to 2022. However, consensus that the interest rate peak has now been reached has fostered a positive sentiment into the new year, and we anticipate a higher transaction volume in 2024.
Lower Volume in 2023
The Norwegian transaction market has been characterised by low activity for over a year now. In 2023, we recorded a transaction volume of NOK 58.2 billion spread across 235 transactions, representing a volume decrease of almost 40 percent compared to 2022. However, towards the end of last year, falling long-term interest rates led to a positive sentiment in the transaction market that has continued into 2024. This contributed to an increase in activity towards the end of 2023.
Decrease in transaction volume in 2023 compared to 2022
2 Transaction
28
%
Office and retail have traditionally been the two most traded segments in the Norwegian transaction market, comprising around 60 percent of the total volume. In 2023, this share has been reduced to just over 40 percent. However, logistics has increased its share from 10 percent to around 20 percent. The share of residential properties has also increased in 2023, largely due to significant individual transactions that impact the volume.
Transaction volume per segment
Prime yield
Our prime yield estimate was adjusted to 4.75 percent in October 2023. Since then, long-term interest rates have fallen significantly, and our assessment is that the recent interest rate decline is substantial enough for us to keep our yield estimates unchanged in January 2024.
Prime yield
64
%
4.
10-year govt. bond vs. Oslo Prime yield, percent
Outlook