Introduction
Donald Trump’s tariffs have fueled significant global uncertainty, and further increases are likely to dampen international trade and growth. In Norway, however, we expect GDP and employment to be supported by continued rate cuts through the autumn and winter. Reduced international uncertainty and lower interest rates should also benefit the transaction market and support a continued stabilization in the office leasing market.
Trump’s tariff turmoil has shaped the global economy in Q2. Towards the autumn and winter, we expect some of the noise to ease as more countries enter trade agreements with the US. Nevertheless, higher tariffs are likely to result in weaker international trade and economic growth than would otherwise have been the case. In Norway, GDP growth has picked up this year after weak performance in 2024. While there are signs of rising unemployment, the number of job postings remains high, and employment growth has been solid. Looking ahead, Norges Bank is expected to continue cutting rates in line with its strategy, supporting growth in both GDP and employment. The central bank has signaled up to two cuts before year-end 2025, with the next move likely in September.
1 Introduction
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The office leasing market has slowed somewhat in 2025, with signing volumes marginally below historical averages. Vacancy remains stable at 6.5 percent, underpinned by limited new supply. After several years of strong growth, rents have now stabilized at elevated levels. Going forward, steady employment growth and several large lease expiries are expected to drive higher activity, particularly in central areas.
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In the investment market, optimism was high at the start of 2025, but international turbulence and persistently high interest rates have contributed to a more cautious investor stance through the second half. Looking ahead, reduced global uncertainty and lower interest rates are expected to gradually lift investor sentiment.
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