Introduction

Donald Trump’s continued statements are contributing to heightened uncertainty, yet both global and Norwegian economic growth have so far held up better than initially feared. Although interest rates in Norway have come down slightly from their peak, there is limited scope for further rate cuts going forward. We expect a continued “flight to quality” to characterise both the transaction market and the leasing market in Norway in the period ahead.

Donald Trump’s frequent statements continue to create uncertainty in international markets. Nevertheless, despite challenging global conditions, economic growth in the US, China, and Europe has proven more resilient than previously anticipated. Looking ahead, however, elevated trade barriers are expected to dampen global trade and redirect trade flows in new directions.

Bilde: Adobe Stock

In Norway, GDP growth picked up last year, driven partly by petroleum investments and stronger private consumption as Norwegian households experienced an improvement in real purchasing power. While interest rates have declined somewhat from their peak, Norges Bank signals only limited further rate reductions. According to the central bank, economic growth in the coming year is expected to remain around current levels, which are considered broadly normal for Norway’s economy. However, there are notable differences across sectors and regions. In Oslo, where the share of interest-sensitive industries is higher than, for example, in Rogaland, the labour market has weakened in recent years.

Uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, combined with the introduction of AI and new technologies, has contributed to a more cautious stance and increased cost focus among businesses in the Oslo region. We expect this to persist in the short term. In our view, this environment is likely to reinforce already visible market trends, including increased risk aversion, bifurcation, and a continued “flight to quality” in both the transaction market and the office leasing market.